Wednesday, June 25, 2014

How will Pitt do in the future with how they are recruiting now?

Here is the final AP top 25 for last season, with what their Rivals rankings in 2009, 2010, and the average of the two.

1. Florida State: 2009- 7  2010- 10 Average 8.5
2. Auburn:  9-4- 6.5
3. Michigan State: 17-30- 23.5
4. South Carolina: 12-24- 18
5. Missouri: 40-21- 30.5
6. Oklahoma: 13-7- 10
7. Alabama: 1-5- 3
8. Clemson: 37-19- 28
9. Oregon: 32-13- 22.5
10. UCF: 66-56- 61
11. Stanford: 20-26- 23
12. Ohio State: 3-25- 14
13. Baylor: 55-39- 47
14. LSU: 2-6- 4
15. Louisville: 77-48- 62.5
16. UCLA: 14-8- 11
17. Oklahoma State: 36-31- 33.5
18. Texas A&M: 22-17- 19.5
19. USC: 4-1- 2.5
20. Notre Dame: 21-14- 17.5
21. Arizona State: 30-35- 32.5
22. Wisconsin: 43-88- 65.5
23. Duke: 51-72- 61.5
24. Vanderbilt: 71-61- 66
25. Washington: 68-28- 43

Now compare this to Chryst's recruiting classes of last year (44th) and this year (38th).

USC 2.5
Alabama 3
Auburn 6.5
Florida State 8.5
Oklahoma 10
UCLA  11
Ohio State 14
Notre Dame 17.5
South Carolina 18
Texas A&M 19.5
Oregon 22.5
Stanford 23
Michigan State 23.5
Clemson 28
Missouri 30.5
Arizona State 32.5
Oklahoma State 33.5


Washington 43
Baylor 47
Central Florida 61
Duke 61.5
Louisville 62.5
Wisconsin  65.5
Vanderbilt 66

One thing that immediately comes to mind is that most of the seven below Pitt are not traditional powers. Washington, Louisville, and Wisconsin have had good stretches at times in their histories. Baylor, UCF, Duke, and Vanderbilt are clearly more dependent on their respective head coaches. Baylor is likely only strong as long as Art Briles remains, and the same goes for Central Florida with George O'Leary. Duke and Vanderbilt are probably even precarious as top 25 teams, especially since James Franklin left Vanderbilt.

Bottom line, on paper Chryst is theoretically recruiting well enough to be a top 25 in the next few years.


  1. You are missing lots of data there Chris.
    You also assume the starters are all Seniors or RS Seniors.
    If you are going to look at 2013 ranking, then best to use average recruiting ranking of 2010 + 2011+ 2012 or 3yr trailing average not including freshmen.

    1. I know that all of the starters aren't upperclassmen but it's very likely that most of the better players on a top 25 are upperclassmen.

    2. Ok, here is some data.
      Last 2 years, 15 of the Top 25 in Final Year ranking had Top 25 ranked classes.
      Top 25 ranked classes is defined as 3 year trailing average.
      The other 10 in the Top 25 came from all over. ie. UCF, etc.
      So, for Pitt to get a Top 25 final ranking, they would have to be lucky.
      It is not a 1 to 1 correlation of recruiting ranking = final ranking.

      Using 3 year average of 2011-2013 to rank 2014, Pitt is ranked 39th with an average class rank of 47.
      In 2013, Pitt had average class rank of 46.3 which puts them 41st. The AP only listed Top 39 and Pitt didn't make the cut.


  2. Now we're talk'n


  3. Thanks for this. I was actually very curious about this subject and particularly in relation to the class rankings of UW while Chryst, Rudolph etc were on staff.

    One of the things that people tend to comment on about UW was their success relative to their recruiting rankings. Chryst was OC at UW from 05 - 11 during which time UW was 68-24 and won 3 B1G titles. All sings point to Chryst recruiting the same type of players that UW did.

    UW finished #33, 40, 34, 41, 43, 80, and 40. It remains to be seen if Chryst can win like Bielema did. But personally I like what he's doing.

    1. The numbers I'm referencing above are UW's final Rivals recruiting rankings btw.

  4. Sadly this sort of data will be disregarded or ignored by the horde of chicken littles amongst the "fanbase" because they would rather talk crap about Chryst recruiting instead of noting the successes. Ditto for Dixon

  5. When you have three straight 6 and 6 seasons, yeah, the fanbase has every right to criticize.....

    1. Lets just remember what PC inherited. Now that he has majority of his players he is more than fair game of being critize

    2. There were some bad loses but some good wins too. There are only 11 seniors, it takes time for the roster to recover from all the coaching changes.

      And while you're right that fans have a right to criticize the record, no fan could say Chryst's first recruiting didn't deliver. If his second class performs like his first we have a bright future.

  6. So, no excuses then, We need to start winning some more games than 6 or 7.

  7. He needs a full cycle of his own players, not saved players from prior regimes. Interesting note on ND recruiting. Is it me or have they taken a few three stars and two stars?

    Kelly is going after speed. Tactically interesting. He knows what type of players he has won with in his prior life and he is getting fast ones again. PC is also committed to his type of player. I was thinking of Ron Dayne as a running backs coach/NJ recruiter. He just seems like he would be the poster child, made good in a PC system.