Monday, November 27, 2017

Top 25 Update (Updated Nov. 26)

Statistical analysis only. No human thought put into it.

1. Oklahoma
2. Wisconsin
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Clemson
6. Auburn
7. Central Florida
8. Ohio State
9. Miami
10. Penn State
11. USC
12. TCU
12. Washington
14. Notre Dame
15. Michigan State
16. Memphis
17. Washington State
18. Stanford
18. LSU
20. Oklahoma State
21. Michigan
22. Boise State
23. Northwestern
23. San Diego State
23. Virginia Tech

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Top 25 Update (Updated Nov. 19)

1.  Alabama
2.  Miami
3.  Oklahoma
3.  Wisconsin
5.  Georgia
6.  Clemson
7.  Notre Dame
8.  Central Florida
9.  Auburn
10. Ohio State
10. TCU
12. Penn State
12. USC
14. Washington
14. Washington State
16. Michigan
16. Michigan State
18. Memphis
19. Mississippi State
19. Boise State
21. Oklahoma State
22. Northwestern
23. San Diego State
24. South Florida
25. South Carolina
25. Stanford

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Top 25 Update (Updated Nov. 12)

Using my own point system to determine how each has done against their schedule. Not a traditional ranking or a power poll. This is pure analytics.

1.  Alabama
2.  Miami
3.  Oklahoma
4.  Georgia
5.  Wisconsin
6.  Clemson
7.  Auburn
8.  Notre Dame
9.  Ohio Sate
10. Central Florida
11. TCU
12. Penn State
13. USC
14. Oklahoma State
14. Washington State
16. Michigan
17. Michigan State
18. Washington
19. Memphis
19. Mississippi State
21. Boise State
22. NC State
23. Northwestern
24. San Diego State
24. South Carolina

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Top 25 Update (Updated Nov. 5)

How each team has done agains their schedule, using my own point system (wins, quality of opponents in a win or loss, home or away, margin of victory). This is not a traditional poll or a power poll. 

1.  Georgia
2.  Alabama
3.  Clemson
4.  Notre Dame
5.  TCU
5.  Oklahoma
7.  Miami
8.  Wisconsin
9.  Central Florida
10. Penn State
11. Ohio State
12. Washington
12. Michigan State
14. USC
15. Auburn
16. Michigan
17. Oklahoma State
18. Memphis
18. Mississippi State
18. Iowa
21. Washington State
22. Boise State
23. Virginia Tech
23. Iowa State
25. San Diego State

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Number of 4 and 5 stars prospects from 2014-2017

These are only programs that got at least one player that was rated a 4 or 5 star player in the time period of 2014-2017. I separated them into three equal sections. There are 76 total, so you'd think that it would be 25, 25, 26, but there are ties so it's slightly uneven. The top level has 26, the second level has 30, and the third level has 20. The teams with an asterisk are currently in the top 25.

Top Level (14)

Alabama 19, 19, 15, 26= 79*
Ohio State 16, 14, 17, 17= 64*
LSU 17, 12, 15, 14= 58*
Auburn 14, 18, 15, 9= 56*
Tennessee 18, 17, 11, 9= 55
Georgia 13, 13, 13, 16= 55*
Florida State 16, 14, 19, 13= 52
USC 1, 21, 13, 17 = 52*
Oklahoma 9, 14, 11, 18= 51*
Texas A&M 13, 12, 10, 13= 48 
Michigan 7, 6, 16, 19= 48
Florida 13, 7, 10, 15= 45
Notre Dame  11, 13, 13, 8= 45*
UCLA 12, 12, 12, 8= 44
Texas 6, 15, 14, 8= 43
Clemson  8, 12, 13, 9= 42*
South Carolina 10, 11, 7, 7= 35
Penn State 6, 11, 6, 11= 34*
Miami  9, 7, 7, 10 = 33*
Stanford 9, 7, 7, 10= 33*
Michigan State 7, 7, 11, 4= 29*
Mississippi 7, 6, 12, 4= 29
Oregon 5, 8, 5, 9,= 27
Arizona State 7, 7, 5, 4= 23
North Carolina 5, 5, 7, 5= 22
Virginia Tech 8, 8, 2, 4= 22*

Second Level (7)

Kentucky 10, 2, 5, 4= 21
Washington 3, 4, 7, 7= 21*
Nebraska 4, 6, 4, 7= 21
Arkansas 3, 7, 4, 5= 19
Mississippi State 2, 6, 5, 6= 19*
Maryland 4, 3, 4, 7= 18
Wisconsin 4, 3, 4, 5= 16*
California 3, 5, 5, 2= 15
Pittsburgh 4, 2, 5, 3= 14
NC State 3, 5, 2, 2= 12*
Louisville 0, 3, 3, 6= 12
TCU 1, 1, 7, 3= 12*
Baylor 2, 4, 3, 2= 11
Oklahoma State 4, 2, 1, 3= 10*
Arizona 6, 0, 2, 2= 10*
Missouri 2, 6, 3, 1= 10
West Virginia 3, 4, 2, 1= 10
Utah 1, 1, 3, 4= 9
BYU 2, 0, 4, 2= 8
Texas Tech 1, 3, 2, 1= 7
Vanderbilt 3, 3, 1, 0= 7
Virginia 4, 2, 0, 0= 6
Georgia Tech 1, 0, 1, 4= 6
Kansas State 2, 2, 1, 1= 6
USF 2, 0, 2, 1= 5
Duke 0, 1, 4, 1= 5
Iowa 2, 1, 0, 2= 5
Colorado 1, 0, 2, 2= 5
Northwestern 4, 0, 1, 0= 5
Illinois 0, 2, 0, 3= 5

Third Level (4)

Temple 1, 2, 1, 0= 4
Boston College 3, 0, 0, 1= 4
Oregon State 0, 0, 2, 2= 4
Rutgers 0, 1, 0, 3= 4
Washington State 0, 2, 0, 2= 4*
Houston 0, 0, 3, 1= 4
Memphis 0, 1, 0, 3= 4*
UCF 1, 1, 2, 0= 4*
Minnesota 1, 1, 1, 0= 3
Kansas 1, 0, 1, 1 = 3
Boise State 2, 1, 0, 0= 3
Cincinnati 1, 0, 0, 2= 3
Indiana 2, 0, 0, 0= 2
Iowa State 1, 0, 1, 0= 2*
Wake Forest 0, 1, 0, 1= 2
San Diego State 0, 2, 0, 0= 2
Syracuse 1, 0, 0, 0= 1
Marshall 0, 0, 1, 0= 1
Purdue 1, 0, 0, 0= 1

Tulsa 0, 1, 0, 0= 1

Of the top level, 53.8% are in the top 25.
Of the second level, 23.3% are in the top 25.
Of the third level, 20.0% are in the top 25. 

So the theory that you have to have a top 25 recruiting class to be in the top 25 simply isn't true. Sure, if you want to win consistently, and win big, you'd be better off with a lot of 4 and 5 star prospects, but you can still be ranked in the top 25 if you don't have a ton of 4 and 5 star prospects. In fact, 42% of the current top 25 is not one of the top 25 recruiting teams over the last three years. 

Wednesday, November 1, 2017

The Facts About Where Pitt Stands in the Recruiting World

Too often I hear fans complain that Pitt doesn't have enough "4 star" players, or that they're not ranked in the top 20 recruiting rankings. But the truth is, recruiting ratings, while being fun and interesting guides, often don't mean much.

I will use Rivals ratings for the purpose of this article, because they are the most known, but the truth is I could use any rankings, and it would be a similar result. And I include my own ratings in that. When I do PA rankings, I talk to college and high school coaches, scouts, reporters, and anyone else that knows these players, and my rankings are just as suspect. Even college assistants that get paid six or seven figures, and head coaches that get paid millions to make these evaluations, misjudge players often.

Let's first look at the rankings in PA. We'll start in 2010 since it's a nice round number. The No. 14 ranked prospect in the state that year, according to Rivals, was Aaron Donald, who of course ended up winning many major awards in college, was a consensus All-American, and is three years into a possible Hall of Fame NFL career. The players ranked ahead of him that season were Sharrif Floyd, Cullen Christian, Mike Hull, Corey Brown, Paul Jones, Tom Ricketts, Kyle Baublitz, Miles Dieffenbach, Ken Wilkins, Dakota Royer, Alex Kenney, Anthony Gonzalez, and Brandon Felder. Floyd was the lone 5 star. All but Gonzalez and Felder were 4 stars.

Floyd went to Florida where he became an All-American and a first round draft choice. Seven on the list went to Penn State, and only Hull had a successful career with an all-conference senior year. He went undrafted and is barely hanging on in the NFL. Brown was a two time second team All-Big 10 performer and also went undrafted. He hung on in the NFL for a few years, but is currently out of the league.

The rest of the group did a lot less. Christian, who was No. 2 on Rivals' rankings, played at Michigan, Pitt, and West Virginia, and had 29 career tackles. Jones was moved from quarterback to tight end at Penn State, had eligibility issues, transferred to Robert Morris, then had eligibility issues again. Ricketts wasn't successful at Penn State, so he transferred to Pitt where a shoulder injury prevented him from ever seeing the field. Baublitz had 27 career tackles before deciding to not come back for his senior season. Dieffenbach did more than most and had an okay career with 26 career starts. Wilkins did not play a down in his three seasons at Michigan, and he left after his redshirt sophomore season. Royer stopped playing at Penn State before the start of his redshirt sophomore season. Kenny had 24 career catches at Penn State before transferring to UMass. Gonzalez ended up having a good career with 26 starts and an all-conference senior season that saw him accumulate 81 tackles. Felder played one year at North Carolina, two years at Pitt, and one year at Winston-Salem State.

So, of the top 14 prospects, the No. 14 prospect was the lone superstar, the No. 1 prospect had a really good career, and players ranked 3, 8 and 12 had good careers. The 9 remaining players did nothing in their careers, and 7 of them were 4 star prospects.

In 2011, there were nine 4-star prospects led by No. 1 ranked player Delvon Simmons. He committed to Texas Tech, transferred to USC, and had a solid college career, before going undrafted. No. 2 Ben Koyack went to Notre Dame, where he had an average career and went in the 7th round. No. 3 prospect Brandon Clemons started 12 games at Michigan State. No. 4 Deion Barnes had 99 career tackles and 14 career sacks at Penn State before going undrafted. No. 5 Kyshoen Jarrett was a three year starter at Virginia Tech and had a very good career as a cornerback and return man. He was a 6th round draft choice and is no longer in the league. No. 6 Jameel Poteat went to Cincinnati where he had 227 yards rushing in two years, then walked on as a linebacker for one year at Pitt, where he accomplished nothing. No. 7 Dondi Kirby committed to Illinois, failed to quality, went to juco, then played one year at Temple where he played 2 games. No. 8 Shawn Oakman went to Penn State, but was dismissed from the team. He ended up at Baylor where he became a star and was projected as a possible first round draft choice. Instead he returned for his senior season, got arrested for sexual assault two weeks before the draft, and went undrafted. The ninth, and final, 4 star prospect, Terrell Chestnut, was a two year starter at West Virginia, then went undrafted.

The most accomplished member of the 2011 class was Ejuan Price, who was ranked No. 19. He ended up being a two time All-ACC pick for Pitt, as well as being a consensus second team All-American.

In 2012, there was one 5 star, and ten 4 stars. The 5 star, Noah Spence, was having a good early career at Ohio State before failed drug tests got him tossed. He ended up at Eastern Kentucky, where he became a second round draft choice. No. 2 Rushel Shell left Pitt and transferred to West Virginia where had 2,010 yards in three seasons, and went undrafted. No. 3 Chris Muller was a four year starter at Rutgers. No. 4 Geno Lewis played three years at Penn State before leaving for Oklahoma during Penn State's "Sandusky year". He ended up averaging 31 catches and 392 yards a year over his career. No. 5 Colin Thompson went to Florida, but left after playing in just 3 games over his first 2 seasons. He ended up at Temple where he had 19 total catches. No. 6 Adam Bisnowaty started 43 games and was a two-time All-ACC player. No. 7 Greg Garmon played one year at Iowa, left to go to a junior college, then got arrested for burglary. No. 8 J.J. Denman started 19 games at Rutgers. No. 9 Deaysean Rippy committed to Pitt, left after one year without playing, then transferred to Colorado where he played on special teams for half the season before not dressing at all for the last two years. No. 10 Demetrious Cox started 24 games at Michigan State, and had a good career. No. 11 Drew Harris committed to Virginia Tech, didn't quality, was at UMass for two weeks, then ended up at IUP. No. 21 in this group was Jesse James, who ended up being a 5th rounder for the Steelers, where he is currently the starter.

In 2013, three of the five best prospects ended up being Pitt players- No. 2 Dorian Johnson, No. 6 Tyler Boyd, and No. 13 James Conner. Johnson was one of two 5 stars, with the other being the No. 1 ranked player, Alex Anzalone, who started only 10 games at Florida. He still had enough raw talent to be a 3rd round draft pick. Among the other 4 stars, No. 7 Will Fuller became an All-American and a first round draft choice at Notre Dame. No. 3 Robert Foster has 28 career catches at Alabama. No. 4 Adam Breneman moved on from Penn State after two years, then had big years at UMass last year and this year. No. 5 Patrick Kugler became a starter in his senior season at Michigan. No. 8 David Williams ran for 794 yards in three seasons at South Carolina, before transferring to Arkansas where he has 382 yards in 8 games this season. No. 9 Mike McGlinchey has become an All-American at Notre Dame and should be a first round draft choice. No. 10 Damion Terry has seen very limited action as a Michigan State quarterback.

In 2014, there were no 5 stars and nine 4 stars. The best in the state that year, however, was No. 15 three star prospect Malik Hooker, who became an All-American and and first round draft pick from Ohio State. No. 1 Montae Nicholson started 23 games for Michigan State, and left early to be a seventh round draft pick. His college career was considered very inconsistent, however. No. 2 Dravon Askew-Henry has had a very good career. No. 3 K.J. Williams did not quality to get into Syracuse, ended up at a junior college, before disappearing from football completely. No. 5 Aaron Ruff has barely seen the field at Temple. No. 6 Chase Winovich started just two games until this season, but he's finally become a very good player at Michigan. No. 7 Mike Grimm did not see the field at Pitt, then left the team due to an injury. No. 8 J.J. Cosentino has thrown just 19 career passes at Florida State. No. 9 Shai McKenzie had 395 yards in his three seasons at Virginia Tech. He's had 408 yards in 8 games with Hampton this season.

I'll stop with those five seasons to show you statistically how the rankings fared. These are just the 4 and 5 star prospects. The school listed is only for the program they signed with initially since this is all about recruiting.

Accomplished players:

Sharrif Floyd (2010) Florida
Delvin Simmons (2011) Texas Tech
Kysheon Jarrett (2011) Virginia Tech
Shawn Oakman (2011) Penn State
Terrell Chestnut (2011) West Virginia
Noah Spence (2012) Ohio State
Adam Bisnowaty (2012) Pitt
Chris Muller (2012) Rutgers
Demetrious Cox (2012) Michigan State
Dorian Johnson (2013) Pitt
Adam Breneman (2013) Penn State
Tyler Boyd (2013) Pitt
Will Fuller (2013) Notre Dame
Mike McGlinchey (2013) Notre Dame
Montae Nicholson (2014) Michigan State
Dravon Henry (2014) West Virginia
Chase Winovich (2014) Michigan


Mike Hull (2010) Penn State
Corey Brown (2010) Ohio State
Miles Dieffenbach (2010) Penn State
Ben Koyak (2011) Notre Dame
Deion Barnes (2011) Penn State
Rushel Shell (2012) Pitt
Geno Lewis (2012) Penn State
JJ Denman (2012) Rutgers
Alex Anzalone (2013) Florida
Patrick Kugler (2013) Michigan
Alex Bookser (2014) Pitt

Contributed little, or nothing:

Cullen Christian (2010) Pitt
Paul Jones (2010) Penn State
Tom Ricketts (2010) Penn State
Kyle Baublitz (2010) Penn State
Ken Wilkins (2010) Michigan
Dakota Royer (2010) Penn State
Alex Kenney (2010) Penn State
Brandon Clemons (2011) Michigan State
Jameel Poteat (2011) Cincinnati
Dondi Kirby (2011) Illinois
Colin Thompson (2012) Florida
Greg Garmon ((2012) Iowa
Deaysean Rippy (2012) Pitt
Drew Harris (2012) Virginia Tech
Robert Foster (2013) Alabama
David Williams (2013) South Carolina
Damion Terry (2013) Michigan State
KJ Williams (2014) Syracuse
Aaron Ruff (2014) Temple
Mike Grimm (2014) Pitt
JJ Cosentino (2014) Florida State
Shai McKenzie (2014) Virginia Tech

I will count that for you. There are 17 that are accomplished, 11 that contribute somewhat, and 22 that contributed little or nothing. So almost half of the 4 and 5 star prospects in PA accomplished little or nothing. Plus, of the 17 that I consider accomplished, 4 of them accomplished more after they transferred. That means only 13 PA players over a 5 year period would be considered an all-star caliber player for the school that originally signed them. You don't have to do a math major to know that that's an average of less than 3 a year.

By the way, I counted the 3 stars in the same time period that I would consider accomplished and I came up with 18. So that's more than 4 or 5 stars. And that group included Aaron Donald, James Conner, Mike Caputo, Ejuan Price, Nick Kwiatkoski, Zaire Franklin, and Malik Hooker. And these are the 3 stars that are ranked by Rivals in their state rankings, so the pool of players is pretty much the same. I know that recruiting websites like to say that there are more 3 stars than 4 or 5 stars so I want to make sure that fact is known.

I think you see what I'm saying here. There really is no difference between what recruiting websites consider 3 and 4 star players.

Look at seasons beyond 2014 to see further proof. In 2015, Notre Dame running back Josh Adams was a 3 star that was ranked No. 12. Some players ranked ahead of Adams? How about Penn State running back Andre Robinson, Vanderbilt quarterback Kyle Schurmur, Pitt safety Jay Stocker, and Penn State offensive lineman Sterling Jenkins. In 2016, burgeoning Michigan star Khaleke Hudson was a 3 star that was ranked No. 10.

Another recruiting fallacy is that you need a lot of 4 and 5 star rated prospects to be successful. While it's mostly true that if you want to win a National Championship it's best to have as much as elite talent as possible, you can certainly be a top 25 or even a top 10 team with a team of 3 star prospects. Just look at some current examples.

Recruiting stars of Wisconsin's starters:

QB- 3
RB- 4
FB- 3
WR- 3
WR- 4
TE- 3
LT- 3
LG- 3
C- 3
RG- 3
RT- 3

DE- 3
NT- 3
DE- 3
OLB- 3
ILB- 2
ILB- 3
OLB- 2
CB- 2
CB- 2
FS- 2
SS- 3

Recruiting stars of TCU's starters:

QB- 4
RB- 3
WR- 4
WR- 2
WR- 4
WR- 2
LT- 3
LG- 3
C- 3
RG- 3
RT- unranked

DE- 2
DT- 2
DT- 3
LB- 3
LB- 2
CB- 3
CB- 3
S- 2
S- 3
S- 3

Recruiting stars of Oklahoma State's starters:

QB- 4
RB- 3
FB/TE- unranked
WR- 3
WR- 4
WR- 3
LT- 3
LG- 2
C- 3
RG- 3
RT- 3

DE- 3
DT- 2
DT- 4
DE- 3
LB- 3
LB- 3
LB- 3
CB- 3
CB- 3
FS- 3
SS- 2

Recruiting stars of Virginia Tech starters:

QB- 3
RB- 3
WR- 4
WR- 3
WR- 3
TE- 3
LT- 4
LG- 4
C- 2
RG- 3
RT- 3

DE- 3
DT- 4
DT- 4
DE- 3
LB- 3
LB- 3
LB- 4
CB- 3
CB- 2
FS- 3
SS- 3

Recruiting stars of Pitt's starters:

QB- 2
RB- 4
WR- 3
WR- 3
WR- 3
TE- unranked
LT- 3
LG- 3
C- unranked
RG- 4
RT- 3

DE- 4
DT- 3
DT- 3
LB- 3
LB- 3
LB- unranked
CB- 3
CB- 2
FS- 4
SS- 2

Giving 5 points for 5 stars, 4 points for 4 stars, etc., here are the totals. I also give one star for an unranked player.

Virginia Tech:
Offense- 35
Defense- 36
Total- 71

Offense- 35
Defense- 29
Total- 64

Oklahoma State:
Offense- 32
Defense- 32
Total- 64

Offense- 30
Defense- 30
Total- 60

As you can tell, Pitt fares less, overall, than these three teams that are currently a combined 29-3, but not too much less, especially Wisconsin and Oklahoma State. In fact, if they simply had a center or tight end that was 3 stars, they would be practically equal with 63 to Wisconsin's and Oklahoma State's 64. Things get even more interesting when we look at last year's Pitt team, and next year's projected Pitt team.

Last year's Pitt team:

RB- 3
WR- 3
WR- 3
WR- 2
TE- 3
LT- 4
LG- 5
C- 3
RG- 4
RT- 3

DE- 3
DT- 3
DT- 3
LB- 2
LB- 3
LB- unranked
CB- 3
CB- 3
FS- 2
SS- 4

Offense- 37
Defense- 29
Total- 66

As you can see, Pitt's offense had higher ranked players than Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State does this year, and more overall than Wisconsin and Oklahoma State.

Projecting next year, and of course this is just a guess, but at least it's an educated guess:

QB- Pickett 3
RB- Hall 4
WR- Henderson 3
WR- Mathews 3
WR- Ffrench 3
TE- Clark 4
OL- There's too many candidates to guess here but we know Booker will be a 4, Morrissey will be unranked, and whoever starts at the other three spots will be 3s. So that's 14.

DE- Hendrix 4
DT- Roy 3
DT- Camp 3
DE- Weaver 2
LB- Zeise 3
LB- Brightwell 3
LB- Idowu unranked
CB- Jackson 2
CB- Mathis 3
FS- Ford 4
SS- Hamlin 4

Offense- 34
Defense- 32
Total- 66

As you can see, Pitt's projected starters are more in tune with what it was last year when they were 8-5, and at the same level as Wisconsin and Oklahoma State has this year.

This is getting very long so I will sum up the most important points here:

1.  Yes, it's great to have a roster filled with 4 and 5 star prospects if you want to win a national championship, but there's only about a dozen programs that can do that. Pitt isn't one of them.

2.  Pitt, however, is in the next group of programs, and that group can win with a roster filled with mostly 3 star prospects, as long as they identify the right players, and put them in a position to succeed. In other words, recruiting and coaching.

3.  Recruiting websites are a great resource, but they should not be taken as gospel. Five star prospects often do nothing, two star prospects often do a lot, and three and four star prospects are the same level of player.

4.  Like Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma State, Pitt is capable of getting into the top 15, too, because they are all recruiting similarly. And getting into the top 25 is even more possible because at worse, they recruit as well, and in a handful of cases they recruit significantly better.

5.  It's still an unknown if Pat Narduzzi is one of those coaches, like Mike Gundy, Paul Chryst, and Justin Fuente, that can identify talent, then put them in the best position to win, but if he isn't one of those coaches, we know that that it is possible that Pitt can be just as successful as Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State with the right coach.

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Top 25 Update (Updated Oct. 29)

Once again, this is not a power poll, and this is not a traditional poll ranking. This is a ranking using my own system, and it calculates what each team did so far against their schedule, and nothing else.

1.  Alabama
2.  Georgia
3.  Notre Dame
4.  Oklahoma
5.  Ohio State
5.  Penn State
7.  Clemson
8.  Wisconsin
9.  TCU
10. Central Florida
11. Oklahoma State
12. Miami
13. USC
14. Iowa State
15. Washington
16. Memphis
17. Mississippi State
18. South Carolina
19. Virginia Tech
20. Auburn
21. NC State
21. Michigan
23. Michigan State
23. Boise State
25. Washington State

Sunday, October 22, 2017

Top 25 Update (Updated Oct. 23)

My weekly top 25, using my own system that gives various points for how each team has done, not what they may do, like other polls do.

1.  Georgia (7-0)
2.  Alabama (8-0)
3.  TCU (7-0)
3.  Penn State (7-0)
5.  Miami (6-0)
6.  Notre Dame (6-1)
7.  Central Florida (6-0)
8.  Clemson (6-1)
9.  Wisconsin (7-0)
10. Oklahoma (6-1)
11. Oklahoma State (6-1)
12. Washington State (7-1)
12. USC (6-2)
14. Ohio State (6-1)
14. Washington (6-1)
16. Michigan State (6-1)
16. NC State (6-1)
18. Stanford (5-2)
19. South Florida (7-0)
20. Memphis (6-1)
20. Iowa State (5-2)
22. Auburn (6-2)
23. South Carolina (5-2)
23. Virginia Tech (6-1)
25. Michigan (5-2)
25. Mississippi State (5-2)

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

The Year 3 Dip

Prior to this season, I talked about how often in year three of a coaching tenure, there is a bit of a dip. It happens because any good players from the previous regime have graduated, and any that weren't good, or didn't fit with the new style, were weeded out. Therefore this is a gap between the players of the past coach, and the too young players of the new coach. Also, this usually is only the case of a team that doesn't have a ton of talent. At elite programs there is usually so much talent, and usually such good freshmen coming gin with the new coach, that this dip doesn't happen. Even programs that are considered elite now, like Clemson and LSU, were not elite when the coaches below took over.

Dabo Swinney, Clemson- Took over for Tommy Bowden, who averaged an 8-5 record. Swinney took over at midseason for Bowden, and he went 4-3 on a team that ended up 7-6. In his second season, he went 9-5. In his third season, he fell to 6-7. He then won 10-14 games in the next six seasons, and is on his way to do the same this season.

Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech- Took over a 7-6 team from Chan Gailey. Went 9-4 and 10-3 in his first two seasons, then went 6-7 in his third year. He's had 8, 9, and 11 seasons since.

Larry Fedora, North Carolina- Took over for interim head coach Everett Winters, who was 7-6 in his lone season. In Fedora's first two season he went 8-4 and 7-6. In his third season, he went 6-7. In his fourth season, he went 11-3.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State- Took over for Les Miles after a 7-5 season. He went 4-7 and 7-6 in the first two seasons, then in year three he also went 7-6. Then he won 9 games each of the next two years, and then had 11 and 12 win seasons right after that.

Gary Patterson, TCU- Took over a 10-2 Dennis Franchione team, and went 6-6 in his first season before going 10-2 and 11-2 in the next seasons. In year four he went 5-6, then ripped off 11-13 wins six more times over the next seven years. Not the third season, but still interesting.

Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia- Took over a 9-4 Bill Stewart team and went 10-3 and 7-6 in his first two seasons before falling to 4-8 in season three.

Mark Dantonio, Michigan State- Took over a 4-8 John L. Smith team and went 7-6 and 9-4 in his first two seasons. In year three he went 6-7. He then won 11-13 wins five times over the next six years.

Butch Davis, Miami- Took over a 10-2 Dennis Erickson team, and went 8-3 and 9-3 in his first two years. In year three he went 5-6. In his next three years at the school he went 9-3, 9-4, and 11-1.

Mike Leach, Washington State- Took over a 4-8 Paul Wulff team and went 3-9 and 6-7 in the first two seasons, before going 3-9 in year three. In year four he went 9-4.

Nick Saban, LSU- Took over a 3-8 Gerry Dinardo team. He went 8-4 and 10-3, then in year three he went 8-5, which was his worst season there. The next year he won the National Championship.

Bret Bielema, Wisconsin- Took over a 10-3 Barry Alvarez team, then went 12-1 and 9-4 in the first two years. In year three he went 7-6, which was his worst season at the school. In the next three years he won 10 games, and then 11 games twice.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn- Took over a 3-9 Gene Chizik team, and went 12-2 in the first season. In year two he went 8-5, and year three he went 7-6, which was his worst season at the school.

Kevin Sumlin, Houston- Took over an 8-5 Art Briles team, then went 8-5 and 10-4 in the next two years. In year three he went 5-7. In year four he went 12-1.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Top 25 Update (Oct. 16)

Using my own points formula, this is how the teams are ranked for what they've accomplished instead of what they may accomplish. Remember, this not ranked at how good the teams are, merely what they've done against their schedule so far. The cream will rise to the top as the season goes further along.

1. TCU- The large road win at elite Oklahoma State has gone a long way. A road win, against an elite team, on the road, is the most points I give on the scale. If Oklahoma State stops being elite, the points for that win will lessen. They also have wins over WVU and Kansas St, two teams currently projected to be bowl teams. But even with a blowout win against Kansas this week, their rating may drop because I have Kansas in the "poor team" category, a rarity for a Power 5 school. Beating a poor team, especially at home, doesn't do much for your rating. They still have games against Texas (home), Texas Tech (away), and Oklahoma (away), plus Iowa State (away) may also move from the average category to the good category. There's a lot of points there, but there's also a few chances to lose.

2.  Georgia- Great win at Notre Dame, plus blew out Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. On the downside, they played two lower division teams in Appalachian State and Samford. Their last five games- Florida (neutral), South Carolina (home), at Auburn (away), Kentucky (home), and Georgia Tech (away)- will give the Bulldogs plenty of chances to keep getting a lot of points.

3.  Miami- No great wins, but four of the five wins were pretty decent so far, with a blowout at Duke and a win at Florida State, and home wins against Georgia Tech and even a good Toledo team. But they are also helped in these rankings by playing only five games so far. The rest of their schedule is not very difficult, so unless they go undefeated they will probably drop a decent amount. Home games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are their only tough games left.

4.  Alabama- There's no doubt that this is the best team in the country right now, but they are hurt in these rankings because of their less than stellar schedule. Even a win over Florida State doesn't mean as much because they aren't the elite team that was expected. Their best win was at Texas A&M by 8, and they aren't even a top 25 team yet. The only three remaining games that could be competitive are LSU (home), Mississippi State (away), and Auburn (away).

5.  Penn State- A poor schedule so far makes them lower than the No. 2 ranking that they are in the other polls. Their best win so far is at Iowa, and they are not even close to a top 25 team. That will change, however, as the next three games are Michigan (home), Ohio State (away), and Michigan State (away). That will determine their fate one way or the other because after those three the schedule gets  extremely easy again.

6.  USC- Two of their good wins- Texas and Utah- were both at home, and barely wins, but they still count as wins over good teams. They also blew out a very good Stanford team, and also beat projected bowl teams Western Michigan, California, and Oregon. Only a 3 point loss at Washington State has prevented them from probably being in the top three. They need to get all of their points now, though, because after playing Notre Dame next week, the schedule gets a little easier.

7.  Clemson- They were on a roll with wins against Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech, but a loss at a mediocre Syracuse team is devastating. They still have games against the likes of Georgia Tech and Florida State at home, and NC State and South Carolina on the road, so if they run the table they will probably still be in the top four.

7.  UCF- This is a tough one. The only good team they've played is Memphis, but they beat them by 27. Maryland is an average P5 team, but they won there by 28. They only have two tough games left- at Navy this week, and USF at home in the finale. That will determine where they end up. If they go undefeated, they will be playing on New Year's Day. But because of their schedule, if they lose, they will probably drop a good bit.

9.  Wisconsin- To be honest, they may have the easiest schedule I've ever seen for a P5 team. Their out of conference schedule is Utah State, Florida Atlantic, and the worst BYU team ever. And they don't play Penn State, Michigan State, or Ohio State. They have Michigan at home in the second to last week, and if they get past them, they should be undefeated. But the schedule is an embarrassment.

10. Notre Dame- Only one loss, a tough 1-point loss at home to Georgia, but also only one quality win- a 20-point win at Michigan State. But the rest of the schedule will determine everything as they still have USC (home), NC State (home), Wake Forest (home), Miami (away), Navy (home), and Stanford (away).

11. Oklahoma- They have a huge 15-point win at Ohio State, and a 5-point win against Texas, but after that, the schedule has been very weak. And the loss at home to Iowa State was brutal. They still have Kansas State (away), Texas Tech (home), Oklahoma State (away), TCU (home), and West Virginia (home), so there's plenty of chances to get impressive wins.

12. Washington State- A couple of good wins against USC at home, and a 23-point win at Oregon, but then they got demolished by 34 at California. That will be hard one to come back from, but they close the season with Stanford (home), Utah (away), and Washington (away).

13. Michigan State- A 20-point loss at home to Notre Dame hurt, but they also have good wins against Western Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan. They still have Penn State (home), and Ohio State (away).

14. Michigan- The biggest win, against Florida in the opener, doesn't look as impressive now, and a loss at home to rival Michigan State is making a lot of people think that this team may not be excellent. They could change that perception easily, however, because they play at Penn State this week, and they play at Wisconsin, and at home against Ohio State, in the last two games.

15. Ohio State- Obviously this is an elite team, but they played one tough team all year, and that Oklahoma team walloped the Buckeyes on their own turf. But with games against Penn State (home), Iowa (away), Michigan State (home) and Michigan (away), they have the opportunity to skyrocket up the rankings.

16. Oklahoma State- They had one big game, at home against TCU, and they got beat much more soundly than the 13-point difference. They probably don't have enough on the schedule to get back into the top four with only Oklahoma (home) their only huge game left. After that, the tougher games are at WVU, and at home against Kansas State.

17. North Carolina State- Their two biggest wins- Florida State and Louisville- doesn't look as great now, and their neutral loss to South Carolina wasn't a good thing either. Their next two games, however, are at Notre Dame, and at home against Clemson, so that will determine how high they'll climb, or how low they'll fall.

18. Washington- A marquee team, but their out of conference schedule is Rutgers, Montana, and Fresno State, and their best win was probably California or Colorado. Combine that with the recent loss at Arizona State, and you can see why they're down this far. They have UCLA (home) and Oregon (home) coming up, then end the season with Stanford (away), Utah (home), and Washington State (home) so they have a chance to rise up the rankings. They probably won't be able to get back into the playoffs, though.

18. San Diego State- A big win against Stanford really helped, but a loss at home to Boise State ruins any chance for an undefeated season. The rest of the schedule is weak.

20. Stanford- After two tough early losses at USC and San Diego State, they've ripped off four straight wins, including a win at Utah, and a 42-point win against Oregon. There's still a lot of chances for impressive wins with games on the horizon against Washington State (away), Washington (home), and Notre Dame (home).

21. South Florida- Yes, they're undefeated, but the schedule has been insanely easy. In fact, the best win is probably at home against Illinois, and they are a poor team. They only have two tests on the entire schedule with Houston (home) and UCF (away) coming in the future.

22. South Carolina- A loss at home to Kentucky really hurts, and they also have a 7-point loss at Texas A&M, but a neutral win against NC State and three other P5 teams help get them into the top 25. They still have Georgia (away), Florida (home), and Clemson (home), so it's going to be a struggle to stay ranked.

22. Virginia Tech- They only have one good win so far, and that was a neutral game against West Virginia. The only other good team they played was Clemson, and they got thoroughly handled in that one. Their other wins were against Delaware, East Carolina, Old Dominion, and Boston College. East Carolina and Old Dominion are among the worst teams in the country this season, and Delaware is an FCS school. The only tough games left are Miami and Georgia Tech, both away.

22. Memphis- Their best wins are UCLA and Navy, both at home. Their lone loss was a 27-point loss at UCF. This Thursday, at Houston, is their only tough game remaining.

25. Auburn- A very talented team, but the wins included Georgia Southern and Mercer, and the only good win is Mississippi State. There are also two losses, albeit at Clemson and LSU. Upcoming games against Texas A&M (away), Georgia (home), and Alabama (home) will make it difficult for them to even stay in these rankings.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Ranking the college football programs

As always, for some reason people misunderstand what I mean by program. I'm not talking about how well the school is performing right now, or even the last few years. I'm talking about what each program has at their disposal that they can sell players and perspective coaches- money, recruiting area, tradition, fan base, conference, etc.


Florida State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Southern California
Texas A&M


Arizona State
Brigham Young
Georgia Tech
Michigan State
North Carolina
Oklahoma State
Texas Christian
Virginia Tech
West Virginia


Air Force
Central Florida
Kansas State
Mississippi State
North Carolina State
Oregon State
South Carolina
South Florida
Texas Tech
Washington State


Boston College
Iowa State
Wake Forest

Monday, October 9, 2017

Ranking the top 25 by what they've actually accomplished

Having a top 25 at the beginning of the season is absurd, and every season roughly half of the preseason top 25 does not end up in the final top 25. The main reason for that obviously is that people can not see into the future. Common sense says that the rankings should not be done before the halfway point, which is where we are at now.

Another related problem is that even the rankings at the halfway point of the season are done by what voters think they know, rather than what they actually know. A lot of big name programs, like Penn State and Ohio State, have not done anything yet that would put them in the top 10, like in the case of Ohio State, or in the top 5, as in the case of Penn State. They could both be playing for the National Championship at the end of the year, but then again they may not be top 10 teams at all. It's too soon to say, because neither have not beaten anyone excellent yet. Ohio State's best win is at Indiana, and Penn State's best win is at Iowa. Washington is another example with their biggest win being at Colorado.

All three may end up great, but they should only be ranked so highly until they actually play better teams. That will definitely be coming as they all have much bigger opponents on the horizon. And if they beat those teams, then they should be ranked that highly.

Just as some highly ranked teams being ranked lower than expected may raise some eyebrows, so will the lofty rankings of teams like San Diego State and UCF. But San Diego State beat a good Stanford team, and UCF, while not playing anybody excellent, have beat teams by an average of 29.3 points. Also, unlike a lot of the bigger programs, these types of programs usually don't schedule any creampuff opponents. This helps them accumulate decent wins throughout their schedule.

Which brings me to the criteria. Points are awarded for wins over three category of teams- elite (top 10 type), good (bowl team), average (pretty much everybody between FBS bowl teams and the truly terrible FBS teams and lower divisions).

Degrees of points are also awarded for home or away wins or losses, plus dominance of the win or loss (14 points is what I use).

Ultimately, this is how teams have done so far, and not what they may do. If a team like Penn State, Ohio State, or Washington keep winning, they will be in the top 5 at the end, and at the end is when it matters. Alternatively, because the schedules of San Diego State, Navy, UCF, and USF won't be as tough, they will have a more difficult time staying up there. The reasons are because, one, wins by teams in stronger conferences will pick up more points in the last half of the season, because of tougher opponents, and, two, any losses of the four lesser profile programs will be hurt by lesser schedules (because the teams in their conference aren't as strong). Of course if a team like San Diego, UCF, South Florida, or Navy, do go undefeated, they will be ranked in the top 10, and rightfully so.

1. Clemson
2. Georgia
3. TCU
4. Alabama
5. Washington State
6. Miami
7. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
9. USC
10. Washington
10. San Diego State
12. Notre Dame
13. Central Florida
14. Navy
15. South Florida
16. NC State
17. Oklahoma
17. Oklahoma State
17. Michigan State
20. Ohio State
21. Auburn
22. Michigan
23. Texas Tech
24. Virginia Tech
24. Stanford


Alabama is being hurt by a weak schedule that they couldn't have expected. Florida State, LSU, and Tennessee have all disappointed. Auburn may prove to be the only elite team that they end up playing. Of course if they win all of their games, the accumulation of points will still put them into the playoffs.

Penn State has Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in their next three games. Needless to say, if they win all three, they will have earned their current No. 3 ranking.

Ohio State and Auburn being so low may be surprising. Both have "good" losses- Ohio State to Oklahoma, and Auburn to Clemson- and because both opponents are elite, they did not lose a lot of points because of a loss. But they did miss out on potential points by not winning a game. Also, neither have particularly good wins. Ohio State's biggest wins are Indiana and Maryland. Auburn's biggest wins are Mississippi, Mississippi State, and Missouri. Only Mississippi State could be considered a good win.

Related to the above note, Ohio State still has Penn State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Michigan. Auburn has LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama. Obviously if either, or both, wins all of these games, they will be ranked near the top. They just haven't done it yet.

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Preview of Pitt's Defense and Special Teams This Year and Beyond

DEFENSIVE LINE:  In recent years, the Panthers have had some excellent players, like superstar Aaron Donald, and Ejuan Price, but overall there was a lot of mediocrity in this unit. Coming into this season, there are no lineman that has reached, or even approached, the level of Donald and Price yet, but for the first time in years the unit has more than a few players with a big upside, especially at tackle. The downside is that they're all very inexperienced.

At end, the starters will be 6'4" 260 pound redshirt junior Dewayne Hendrix, and 6'4" 255 pound redshirt senior Allen Edwards. Though both are upperclassmen, Hendrix has played in just two career games, after transferring from Tennessee, and being injured all of last season. Edwards is a junior college transfer that has played in just seven games. The good news, though, is that both are talented. Hendrix has high NFL draft choice ability, but he can't seem to stay on the field. Even in practices this season he has been banged up. If he stays healthy, he can have a big year, but so far that's still a big question. Edwards is a very good athlete and is also very capable of having a big season.

Behind these two up are much younger players, though they also have very good ability. Maybe the best of the younger group is 6'5" 265 pound redshirt freshman Rashad Weaver. The former Michigan commit has great size, and has made big strides in the past year. Two others that will likely see the field are 6'4" 250 pound redshirt junior James Folston, and 6'2" 225 pound redshirt sophomore Jimmy Medure. Folston is a former linebacker that has bulked up to play end, and Medure is an undersized walk-on who may be used in special pass rush situations. It says a lot about him that an undersized walk-on can get on the field with the talent that surrounds him.

Three other ends- 6'5" 245 pound redshirt freshman Patrick Jones, 6'4" 255 pound Deslin Alexandre, and 6'1" 250 pound Kaezon Pugh- have shown potential, and will only get better, but appear to be behind the others for now. Jones does have the ability, if he keeps improving during the season, to see some snaps. Pugh is a former local star with a lot of ability, but he's still trying to learn the end position after moving from linebacker.

While the ends are showing improved depth, the tackles are quickly becoming flat out loaded with both talent and depth. The starters to be begin the season look to be 6'4" 290 pound redshirt freshman Keyshon Camp, and 6'4" 280 pound redshirt junior Shane Roy. Camp originally committed to USC, and he has NFL potential. Roy is a former 220 pound DE that was brought in by Paul Chryst, but he has held off the young studs to earn his spot.

Putting pressure on both will be 6'4" 295 pound redshirt sophomore Kam Carter and 6'3" 285 pound sophomore Amir Watts. Carter played at Penn State at one time, before ending up for a year in junior college. He is loaded with talent, but he needs to stay focused. Watts was a pleasant surprise early last season before fading late. He is a bull. He was my pick for being a breakout player this year but he has been banged up in practices, and hasn't been able to beat out the surprising Roy.

Behind these four, there is still young talent in 6'3" 290 pound Rashad Wheeler, 6'2" 315 freshman Jaylen Tywman, and 6'5" 255 pound Carson Van Lynn. Wheeler and Tywman are already good enough to produce this season, if they are forced into action. Van Lynn has moved from defensive end, to offensive tackle, and now defensive tackle.

The future- The only senior in this group is Edwards, though theoretically Hendrix could have a huge year and go to the NFL draft early. But assuming that doesn't happen, this unit will be even more loaded next year. All of this young talent will presumably get better, and tackles Devin Danielson and David Green, and ends John Morgan and Noah Palmer, are arriving next season.

LINEBACKER:  This unit continues to be a work in progress, though the coaching staff seems to like the starters more than most people, and you would think they would know.

The key in the middle is 6'0" 220 pound redshirt sophomore Saleem Brightwell. He didn't play a ton last season, but when he did he showed that he had a real nose for the ball. It will be interesting how he holds up in the middle with his size. Physically he may be better suited for the outside, but he's smart and the staff needs a starter after 6'2" 245 pound senior Quintin Wirginis got suspended for the first three games. A three year backup and situational third down player, Wirginis is a proven playmaker. Ideally, he would come back and earn the middle spot so that Brightwell can move back outside, but the staff seems more than okay with Brightwell in the middle. Also getting snaps will be 6'2" 240 pound redshirt freshman Chase Pine, who could be a future star. Elias Reynolds, a 6'2" 235 pound redshirt freshman, has been banged up in practices this season, but should be more in the mix in the future.

On the outside, the starters will be 6'0" 225 pound redshirt junior Seau Idowu, and 6'2" 230 pound redshirt junior Elijah Zeise. Idowu is a former walk on, and the staff loves him. Statistically, he had a good season last year as a starter, but he has yet to prove that he's a difference maker. A lot depends on him this season to turn into that kind of player. Zeise has the size and athletic ability to be really good, but after missing last season with an injury, he is still unproven. He now has his chance, and like Idowu, it's crucial that he produces.

After that, things get even more suspect. Battling to get on the field will be 6'2" 215 pound redshirt junior Jalen Williams, 6'0" 235 pound redshirt junior Brian Popp, and 6'2" 215 pound redshirt sophomore Anthony McKee. Williams is a former safety, Popp is a walk on, and McKee hasn't been able to make any mark at all in what is about to become his third season in the program.

All three freshmen- 6'1" 210 pound Albert Tucker, 6'0" 210 pound Cam Bright, and 6'3" 200 pound Kyle Nunn- will probably redshirt, though clearly if any become capable they shouldn't have too much trouble getting onto the field.

The future- Assuming Brightwell, Zeise, and Idowu remain the starters, all three starters will be back next season. The staff will be desperate for at least two of the three freshmen this season to be able to make a strong move next year. Wendell Davis will be arriving next season, but clearly much more than him is needed.

DEFENSIVE BACKS:  It's no secret that the secondary last year was a disaster, and it seems almost impossible to be as bad this year. One of the players that took a lot of heat last season was 5'9" 180 pound senior Avonte Maddox, who I expect to bounce back this season. The starter at the other corner will probably be either 5'10" 175 pound redshirt junior Philipie Motley, or 6'0" 180 pound redshirt sophomore Dane Jackson. Motley was the leader for awhile in practice, but injuries have prevented him from participating in more recent practices. The two sleepers are the two freshmen- 5'11" 185 pound Damarri Mathis, and 6'0" 190 pound Jason Pinnock. Mathis has been so impressive in camp that he could end up starting early in the season. Pinnock may also see the field, and adds much needed size to the position. Therran Coleman, a 6'0" 195 pound redshirt freshman, has a lot of potential, but injuries have hampered him so far this year. If he regains his health, he should be a major contender for playing time. The last remaining corner is 6'0" 190 pound redshirt sophomore Malik Henderson.

At safety, things look a little better, even though 5'11" 195 pound junior Jordan Whitehead will miss the first three games because of a suspension. It's a major disappointment for a player that should be a leader. Beating Penn State or Oklahoma State in the first three games was going to be hard enough, but Whitehead's absence could be potentially devastating. Taking over for him at free safety, until he comes back, will be either 6'2" 190 pound redshirt sophomore Jazzee Stocker, or 6'1" 180 pound redshirt freshman Bricen Garner. Stocker has the experience edge, so he will likely be the starter, but Garner is a smart player that has a nose for the ball. Both will be tested a lot playing against Penn State and Oklahoma State without Whitehead.

At strong safety (technically Pitt calls it boundary safety, but I've been using traditional terminology throughout so people won't be confused), 5'10" 195 pound redshirt junior Dennis Briggs will be the starter. He was a backup to Whitehead last season when Whitehead was the strong safety, and he showed flashes as a playmaker. He's a very smart, steady player. He will be pushed, however, by 6'1" 195 pound redshirt freshman Phil Campbell, and possibly even 6'3" 205 pound redshirt freshman Henry Miller. Both would provide the size that the secondary is desperately lacking.

Also in the mix is 6'1" 190 pound sophomore Damar Hamlin, who is the mystery man in all of this. Once a highly touted recruit, he has struggled with injuries since he's been at Pitt.

Last, but certainly not least, is 6'0" 175 pound freshman Paris Ford, who has star potential, but came into camp two weeks late because of eligibility issues. Narduzzi claims he will redshirt, but that seems unlikely. Expect him to play, probably early in the season.

The future: Maddox will graduate, and with the troubles he's had in college, I would expect Whitehead to go to the NFL early. But after that, everyone else will be back, and finally there will be some real experience in the unit. But, even so, three incoming freshmen this season- Mathis, Pinnock, and Ford, are all talented enough to be starting next season, and if they are, the talent level will go way up for the first time in years. Two newcomers added to the mix will speedy 5'9" cornerback Marquis Williams, and 6'2" cornerback Judson Tallandier, who will bring much needed size to the position. The wildcard here is local star Kwantel Raines, who has yet to make a decision, but who also has the Panthers very high on his list.

SPECIAL TEAMS: After being the kicker for four years, Chris Blewitt is gone, and despite sometimes being up and down, he will always live in the hearts of Pitt fans for the game winning field goal against eventual National Champion Clemson. His replacement is 6'3" 190 pound redshirt freshman Alex Kessman. He's yet to kick in a game, so it's unknown how well he will do, but he does have a very strong leg.

The punter, for the fourth season, will be 6'6" 215 pound redshirt senior Ryan Winslow. His career thus far can best be described as average, but he will have one more season to make his mark.

As for the return game, Quadree Henderson was a First Team All-American return man last season, so enough said.

The future- If Kessman succeeds, it will obviously be huge for the program because they will have their kicker for four years. Waiting in the wings to replace Winslow is 6'1" 215 pound freshman Kirk Christodoulou, who trained at the best punting academy in the world, in his native Australia. Henderson will also be back next season so that will remain a huge strength.

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Preview of Pitt's Offense This Year and Beyond

QUARTERBACKS:  Nathan Peterman became the second transfer quarterback in the row for the Panthers to be drafted, and this year's starter, Max Browne, is aiming to be the third. The 6'5" 230 pound Browne comes in as a graduate transfer from USC, where he began last season as a starter before losing his job to phenom Sam Darnold. Browne is a former top quarterback prospect coming out of high school, and some even considered him the top prospect at the position. He has all of the physical tools to be a first round NFL draft choice, but he hasn't done anything of consequence in his college career yet. This is his last chance to reach his potential so the incentive for him to be great this season is there.

His primary backup will be 6'2" 220 pound redshirt sophomore Ben DiNucci who was up and down in his emergency appearance in the bowl game last season, but he was only a redshirt freshman, and it was a highly stressful time to make a debut. He's not very big, and he doesn't have an exceptionally strong arm, but he's scrappy, smart, and mentally tough.

Behind both will be 6'5" 225 pound redshirt freshman Thomas MacVittie, and 6'2" 215 pound freshman Kenny Pickett. MacVittie has great size, a very good arm, and has big time speed for a quarterback, but he's still somewhat raw, which isn't surprising considering he's just a redshirt freshman and only started one season in high school. Pickett was a pleasant surprise in the spring, and combines brains with good athleticism and a very accurate arm.

The future: Once again the Panthers will have to find another quarterback next season, and the battle between DiNucci, MacVittie, and Pickett will be interesting. DiNucci has a leg up this season because he's been at the college level longer, but MacVittie has the most raw physical ability of the trio, and Pickett has the physical ability and smarts to be a future starter. It's probably ideal if MacVittie or Pickett make the jump mentally that DiNucci did entering this season since they appear to have a higher ceiling, but it would be foolish to ever count out someone as tough as DiNucci (as I have before). Incoming next year will be Nick Patti, who will be redshirted in his first year. He is at a similar level coming into the program as the quarterbacks currently on the roster so for the next few years it will be a competition to see who progresses the most. Finding a big time starter next year is imperative if the program is ever going to reach a higher level.

RUNNING BACKS:  The legendary James Conner has finally moved on, and while there's a lot of raw talent in the unit this season, it may be unrealistic to think that any individual running back can reach the high level he sustained as a Panther. But last season the Panthers were ranked No. 28 nationally in rushing offense, and with what should be a good passing game and an excellent offensive line, there's no reason why they can't statistically finish in the same general area nationally, even if it has to be done by committee.

The starter to begin the season appears to be 6'2" 230 pound redshirt junior Qadree Ollison, who practically disappeared last year with just 33 carries after winning the ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with 1,121 rushing yards and 12 total TDs as a redshirt freshman. Needless to say, Pitt needs to him to be the player he was two years ago, and not the player he was last year. He's not a game breaker, but he's big and he generally moves the chains.

Behind him at halfback, there will be four players battling for carries, and it's not out of the question that any of the four could eventually wrestle the starting job away from Ollison.

The two other veterans returning are 5'11" 220 pound junior Darrin Hall, and 5'11" 210 pound sophomore Chawntez Moss. Hall was a hyped recruit coming out of Ohio, but in his first two seasons he's only had 100 carries. He's averaged 4.2 yards in those carries so he's not been a flop, but he still has yet to reach the level that was expected of him. With so many young running backs on the roster this may be his last chance to make his mark. Moss had flashes as a true freshman, including a 12 carry, 91 yard performance against Marshall, but he faded as the season progressed, getting just 6 carries in the last 5 games. He's quick and runs hard so his future should still be rosy.

The two incoming freshmen are 6'0" 205 pound AJ Davis, and 5'9" 215 pound Todd Sibley. Both have excellent futures. Both may also redshirt, though I wouldn't be surprised if at least one doesn't make his presence felt immediately. In fact, Davis has been getting praise by the coaching staff in camp so it's looking like that he will get a chance to play this season.

As far as fullback, the man, the myth, the legend, George Aston, is back, though he may miss a lot of time this year after being injured in practice. The 6'0" 245 pound redshirt junior is good running with the ball, catches well, and is a fantastic blocker. His return this season, and next, is crucial as he is the heart of the team. Behind him, there really are no other options with his ability, so tight ends will have to pick up the slack until he returns. Next year, fullback/tight end Jay Symonds will arrive to eventually take over once Aston leaves. At 6'4" and 248 pounds, he is big and brutish.

The future: There's five talented halfbacks, and one fullback, who all, theoretically, will be back next season. And there's still a chance that Virginia speedster Coleton Beck signs for next season, and that is mostly a luxury signing. Needless to say, this position should be a strength in at least the next few years.

WIDE RECEIVERS:  This position was suspect leading into last season, but suddenly it has very good potential. The leader of this group is 6'3" 215 pound redshirt senior Jester Weah, who has gone from being a player that fans hoped would transfer, to a potential high draft choice. Weah always had the size, strength, and big time speed, but he was also raw and had suspect hands. But last season that all changed as he ended up with 36 catches, 870 yards, and 10 TDs, while also averaging a ridiculous 24.2 yards a reception. Starting beside him will be 5'8" 190 pound junior Quadree Henderson. As a sophomore, Henderson had just 26 catches for 286 yards, and 1 TD, but as a rusher he had 631 yards and 10 TDs, with an incredible 10.5 yards a carry. With Tre Tipton out for the season with an injury, his replacement as the third starter will probably be 5'11" 190 pound sophomore Maurice Ffrench, who showed flashes as a freshman last year.

While only Weah has ideal size, and Henderson and Ffench have yet to show all around receiving skills, the speed of the trio is extremely impressive. Anything under 11 seconds in the 100 meters is very fast, and Weah (10.59), Ffrench (10.69), and Henderson (10.80) all are well under that mark.

Others that should see time should be 6'4" 205 pound sophomore Aaron Mathews, 6'3" 205 pound redshirt freshman Ruben Flowers, and 5'9" 190 pound Rafael Araujo-Lopes. Mathews missed a lot of time in preseason practices so he's behind, but his size will get him on the field. Flowers has size and athleticism, and is starting to come into his own after a redshirt season. Araujo-Lopes is a former junior college player that has been a pleasant surprise due to his quickness. He is also a very good special teams player.

Three true freshmen- 6'1" 205 pound Michael Smith, 6'0" 205 pound Dontavius Butler-Jenkins, and 6'1" 180 pound Darian Street- have very good potential. Street will redshirt, but Smith and Butler-Jenkins have the ability to see the feld this season if they progress fast enough.

The future- Only Weah will move on after this season, and most of the receivers on the roster this season are underclassmen, so the numbers will only improve in the near future. Tipton will be back, and will hopefully finally be healthy for a full season. Smith and Butler-Jenkins should be much bigger factors next season. Cameron O'Neil is an under the radar receiver that will be arriving next year, and he's another good athlete to add to the mix.

TIGHT ENDS:  The Panthers have had good success with the position over the years, and it's looking like a strength again this season. The two veterans that will get most of the snaps will be 6'6" 260 pound redshirt sophomore Chris Clark, and 6'6" 260 pound redshirt senior Matt Flanagan. Clark is a former No.1 tight end prospect in the country that originally played at UCLA. His recruitment, and transfer, was a circus, and his reputation took a hit for it, but he's finally getting his chance to live up to his potential. He has NFL first round ability so he has the potential to have a big year. Flanagan is a graduate transfer from Rutgers, and was mostly asked to just block at Rutgers, but the Pitt staff has been very impressed with his overall game. Expect him to take over a lot of Aston's role in the playbook until the big fullback comes back. Both players will be major factors in the offense this season. Redshirt senior Devon Edwards is a big 6'4" 275 pound blocker that will see some snaps for that purpose.

Three very intriguing freshmen have also arrived, and they all are big and strong. The most ballyhooed of the bunch is 6'5" 280 pound Charles Reeves, who has fantastic athletic ability for that size. He has star potential down the road. The other two- 6'7" 275 pound Grant Carrigan, and 6'4" 245 pound Tyler Sear- are locals. Cardigan has especially great size, and may be more of a receiving threat. Sear is tough as nails, and should develop into a very good blocker, if not more.

The future- On paper, Flanagan and Edwards will move on after the season, though if Clark has an impressive season he could conceivably leave early for the NFL. Ideally, Clark stays around for at least next season so that the younger players will not be asked to start just yet. Matt Alaimo is a talented player that will join this group next season. He is a complete tight end, but is an especially good blocker.

OFFENSIVE LINE:  Two longtime starters- Adam Bisnowaty and Dorian Johnson- graduated, but the unit still looks talented and deep. The star is redshirt junior 6'6" 305 redshirt junior Brian O'Neill, who will move from right tackle to left tackle this season. He has first round NFL ability. After that, things get much more muddled, even though the possibilities are many. Taking over at right tackle should be 6'7" 320 pound redshirt senior Jaryd Jones-Smith, who would finally get his chance to be a starter. The guards will be 6'6" 315 pound redshirt junior Alex Bookser, 6'4" 315 pound redshirt senior Brandon Hodges, and 6'4" 340 pound redshirt senior Alex Officer. Bookser was expected to step up to another level this year, but he will miss the first game for disciplinary reasons. It may cost him his job throughout the year, because his lack of dependability has led to the arrival of Hodges, who is a graduate transfer from Texas. Officer was the starting center last season, and had some snapping problems. He is the probable starter at left guard. At center, 6'3" 315 pound redshirt junior Connor Dintino, a former nose tackle, is in a battle with 6'3" 300 pound redshirt freshman Jimmy Morrissey, a former walk on that received a scholarship today. It's also possible that Bookser moves to center, if Dintino and Morrissey are not up to snuff.

After those seven, there's still good talent. Giant 6'6" 350 pound redshirt freshman Justin Morgan, 6'5" 310 pound redshirt freshman Brandon Ford, 6'6" 310 pound redshirt freshman Bryce Hargrove, and 6'5" 320 pound redshirt sophomore Tony Pilato are all showing very good progress as underclassmen, and if any has to play this season, they will likely get the job done.

Incoming freshmen that should be redshirted are 6'6" 280 pound Gabe Houy, 6'3" 270 pound center Owen Drexel, 6'5" 315 pound Jerry Drake, and 6'5" 325 pound Carter Warren. They all have very good potential, especially Drake, who could play this season if he need be.

The future: Four of the top group could move on after the season, with O'Neill possibly leaving early for the NFL, and joining Jones-Smith, Officer, and Hodges. But all will not be lost as Bookser and the top two centers will be back, and Morgan, Ford, Hargrove, Pilato, and Drake, at least, should be ready for the next level. The incoming class will include 6'6" 310 pound juco Chase Brown, who could be an instant starter, and two locals- Blake Zubovic and Jake Kradel- who are also highly promising.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Pitt Basketball Prospects Bios

Marcus Carr, Montverde Academy (Montverde, FL)- The 6'1" 170 pound native of Toronto is the probable starting point guard so he's going to have to be ready for the rigors of the ACC immediately. Luckily for Pitt, there's a good chance that his skills and maturity will prevent him from getting overwhelmed as a freshman. A good, but not elite athlete, but that doesn't prevent him from being a shutdown defender and getting into the lane. An average to slightly above average shooter currently, but he has the ability to be above average, out to three point range, with some fine tuning. Extremely smart and under control with the ball in his hands. Exceptional passer that puts the ball right where it has to be without having to be showy to get it there. Tough, both mentally and physically. Blew out ACL two years ago, but is completely recovered. Borderline top 100 player that had offers from the likes of Baylor, Virginia Tech, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, and Cincinnati.

Bottom line- Fans will compare him to James Robinson a lot since they have a lot of the same attributes. Both are smart and consistent, but Robinson is bigger and stronger, and Carr is a better defender. If Carr improves his shooting, which Robinson never did to a great degree, he has the potential to be even better. Either way, I'm looking at the potential to eventually be a 10-12 ppg, 5 apg, 2 spg player, while providing excellent defense and steadiness.

Khameron Davis, Forest Trail Academy (Kernersville, NC)- The 6'4" 190 pound Colorado native spent time at various schools, before ending up at a year at a prep school, but he still has four years of eligibility. The combo guard does not have topnotch offensive skills, but he is a good finisher thanks to his excellent athleticism. Defense is his specialty, and the staff think he can be a lockdown defender thanks to his athleticism and ridiculous 6'10" wingspan.

Bottom line- He was about as under the radar as a player could get, but if all he ever does is become a defensive stopper off the bench, then he will be a good pickup. I'm not saying he won't some day develop into more, but at the very least being a defensive stopper is very possible.

Monty Boykins, Lafayette graduate transfer- The Ohio native is a 6'5" SG with nice size and very good shooting ability. He especially has excellent potential as a three point shooter. Averaged only 6.6 ppg in his career, with a season high of 10.7 ppg as a junior, the only year that he started, but injuries have plagued him throughout his career. After starring in high school in suburban Cincinnati, he lost all but the first six games of his senior season due to an ACL injury. At the time he was being recruited by the likes of Notre Dame. After ignoring advice to go to prep school to recover from his knee injury, and get back on the radar of major programs, he decided to go to Lafayette instead, where he played in 21 games before injuring his wrist and sitting out the rest of the year. As a sophomore he played 31 games, starting seven, and averaged 4.7 ppg. As a junior, he finally became a full-time starter, and ended up with a career high 10.7 ppg, while making 54 threes at a 35.8% clip.  He was looking to have a big senior year before missing the entire season again, this time with a shoulder injury. Not a good free throw shooter, and an average defensive player.

Bottom line- Barring injury, which is a big question with him, he can be a three point threat, and the Pitt staff does believe that he can replicate his junior production while at Lafayette.

Parker Stewart, Union City HS (Union City, TN)- The 6'4" SG, a former Ole Miss commit, is an intriguing late pickup for the Panthers, mainly because of his excellent three point stroke. Not an elite athlete, but he's smart and crafty, and he can also play point guard. Good passer and his length may offset his lack of elite athleticism to help get him into the lane. A coach's son, his dad is the head coach at UT-Martin. Other than Ole Miss, he was also offered by the likes of Florida, Georgetown, LSU, Iowa State, Butler, NC State, Memphis, Kansas State, Missouri, and Wisconsin.

Bottom line- A late gift for the Panthers when they really needed one. Will be his best as a catch and shoot off guard, but if he can overcome average foot speed, he could play some at the point, and may even prove to be an above average ACC player.

Jared Wilson-Frame, Northwest Florida State College (Niceville, FL)- Junior college star with a vast array of skills. At 6'5" and 230 pounds, he has the size to be a small forward, and the skills to be a shooting guard. NBA body already, as he's build like a linebacker. He's average to slightly above average defensively, but he's got what it takes physically to be better than that. Offensively is where he shines, though. He can use his big frame to rebound and score inside, and he can make shots all over the floor, including from three point range. He's also a very good passer. The Connecticut native at one time or another received offers from UConn, Providence, VCU, Georgia, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Wichita State. Well coached by Steve DeMeo, a respected longtime assistant in the major college ranks, mostly at Providence. He has two years of eligibility.

Bottom line- There's no doubt that he's the most talented of this group, and he also has the best chance to be a star. If he can live up to his potential immediately the next two years for the Panthers won't be as dire as many expect. That's a lot to put on a newcomer, but he's very mature physically and mentally.

Shamiel Stevenson, Hillcrest Academy (Phoenix, AZ)- Elite athleticism is the best trait for this 6'6" small forward. The Canadian native is solidly built already, and has off the charts hops. Can play some power forward because of his toughness and 230 pound build, but also has the athleticism and perimeter game to be a small forward. He's listed officially by Pitt as both a forward and a guard so that shows you that they believe in his versatility. Very good defensively and has a nice outside shot that should only improve. A sleeper, and late bloomer, that had offers from schools like Georgia Tech, Arizona State, USC, and VCU.

Bottom line- One of my two picks for the biggest sleeper in this class. If it ever comes together for him he has the chance to be a very good college player.

Samson George, First Love Academy (Washington, PA)- A native of Nigeria, via New York City, the 6'7" 220 pound power forward originally signed with Iona, but an eligibility issue sprung him loose to come to Pitt. He still will have four years or eligibility despite actually enrolling at Iona earlier in the year. An undersized power forward with the ability to put the ball on the floor a little, but his real strengths are toughness and rebounding. One member of the Pitt staff described him to me as "crazy tough". Had offers from the likes of USC, VCU, and Rutgers.

Bottom line- You can never have enough junkyard dogs, and that's exactly what George brings to the program.

Terrell Brown, Tilton School (Tilton, NH)- Big 6'10" 240 pound power forward/center with extremely long arms. Brown has very good shot blocking ability and uses his long arms to rebound well. Also a good passer for a big man. But his real strength is his shooting ability, out to three point range. The very well respected New England Recruiting Report, the main source for prospects in the region, raves about what they call his "vast potential". They also say that he has become more aggressive over the last year, which was one of the biggest complains about him. Brown was nearly a full year younger than other kids in his class until he went to prep school for a year. In that prep year, he had an excellent season against elite competition.

Bottom line- My other big sleeper in this group, he has the size, the shot blocking ability, and great shooting range for a big man. He could cause major mismatches if he develops as expected.

Peace Ilegomah, Montverde Academy (Montverde, FL)- Another native of Nigeria, the 6'9" 235 pound center is still developing offensively, but he uses his body and athleticism to rebound very well. Great anticipation and long arms makes him a potentially excellent shot blocker. Runs the floor very well. Didn't start playing basketball until he was 14 years old.

Bottom line- He still has a way to go offensively, but he's big, athletic, he can rebound, and he can block shots.

2018 Additions

Malik Ellison, St. John's transfer- Technically, he's on the team now, but will have to sit out this year due to transferring. The son of Louisville great Pervis Ellison, the 6'6" 215 pound shooting guard has yet to reach his potential, but with two years to play still, his best basketball is still likely to come. Averaged 7.4 ppg over his two seasons at St. John's, and has the potential to be a good shooter. He did make 30 threes at a 34.3% clip as a sophomore. Very good athlete and great length for the position. Good defender. Wasn't a good throw shooter at St. John's. Flashed as a sophomore with 22 points against Penn State, 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists against Syracuse, 23 points against DePaul, 15 points and 6 rebounds against Providence, and 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists against Georgetown.

Bottom line- The probable starting shooting guard in 2018.

Bryce Golden, Saint James School (Hagerstown, MD)- Tough as hell 6'9" 240 pound power forward that can do a little bit of everything. Very competitive and always plays hard. Good basketball instincts. Surprises defenders with his athleticism. His AAU coach calls him a "bully". Has some good offensive skills but needs to look to score more. Very good rebounder. Currently a poor free throw shooter.

Bottom line- Has some good skills for a power forward and could pair with Brown in the future to form a nice one-two punch.

Summary- Like the Kevin Stallings era, it will probably take a few more years to really know how good, or how not good, this class is. I mentioned throughout about the potential of each prospect, but it's common sense that not all of these players will reach their potential. But likewise they will not all fail. How many succeed, and to what degree, will determine what the university does with Stallings a few years down the road. Wilson-Frame has star potential, and Carr, Stewart, Stevenson, Brown, Ellison, and Golden have the ability to be good all around players in the next few years. Davis has a chance to be a defensive specialist, Ilegomah can be a shot blocking force, and George's hustle and toughness can only help the program. The raw talent is there to be good eventually. Stallings is good coach, and if given enough time he'll turn Pitt into a winner again. But with a new AD, and a segment of very vocal fans who never bought into Stallings from the start, he won't have many seasons to prove that. Whether the Panthers are good enough, fast enough, to get back into the NCAA tournament before the administration at the university gives up on Stallings is the race that we'll all have to watch now. But at least he now has his players, so he will live or die with them. And that's the only way to truly judge him.